Perception, misperception, Jervis, Levy and Stein

Robert Jervis, “War and Misperception,” Journal of Interdisciplinary History 18, no. 4 (Spring 1988), 675-700.

It's worth keeping Jervis' definition of misperception in mind while reading this article. He says misperception includes "inaccurate inferences, miscalculations of consequences and misjudgments about how others will react to one's policies."

A few interesting points ... Jervis' discussion of risk-aversion for gains and risk-acceptance for losses and the role this psychological phenomenon can play in conflict. Is this prospect theory (making decisions while dealing with risk)? Levy has an article on prospect theory and rational choice which may be useful.

An important question broached after a discussion of misperceptions in WWI and WWII: did the misperceptions cause the war? Did they even matter at the end of the day? Jervis references Stein, who argues that misperception can lead to cooperation, not just conflict, and questions whether a linkage between a misperception and an impact on the actor's behavior and final outcomes is, in fact, fait accompli.

Most of the conversation on misperception focuses on historical precedent and the Cold War guessing game. I'm interested in what our key perception dilemmas are post-Cold War. In particular, the number of conflicts we are now engaged in where misperceptions occur on a nation state level (Saddam's possession of WMD) and a sub-state/transnational level (al-Qaeda - Bin Laden actually substantiated his threats).